The last five years, replayed
The same frozen rules the live record uses, run month by month from Oct 2021 to Sep 2026, with £50,000 on paper. Each month the code saw only the prices up to that month-end. Set against an S&P 500 tracker fund, the index itself and bank savings.
A year on average: Launchpad +11.0% · tracker +13.9% · index +12.5% · bank +3.2%. Counting no dividends at all, Launchpad ends at £73,902.
The account against the benchmarks
■ Trader Launchpad (with dividends) ■ S&P 500 tracker fund (dividends reinvested, 0.07% fee) ■ S&P 500 index (price only) ■ Bank savings (1-year fixed rate, Bank of England). Month-end values in pounds, starting £50,000 at the end of Sep 2021. Hover a month for the figures.
£10,000 fresh each year
| Year | Launchpad | Tracker | Index | Bank | Launchpad, price only |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 (Sep–Dec) | +£24 | +£1,045 | +£1,009 | +£7 | +£15 |
| 2022 | +£1,478 | −£843 | −£985 | +£80 | +£1,169 |
| 2023 | +£663 | +£1,937 | +£1,767 | +£312 | +£310 |
| 2024 | +£3,397 | +£2,663 | +£2,512 | +£513 | +£3,240 |
| 2025 | +£24 | +£960 | +£842 | +£417 | −£233 |
| 2026 (Dec–Sep) | +£221 | +£1,465 | +£1,382 | +£283 | −£89 |
| Added up | +£5,807 | +£7,227 | +£6,527 | +£1,612 | +£4,412 |
£10,000 put in fresh at the start of each year (part years for the first and last), gain or loss by the end of it. Bold is the best of the four that year. The last column leaves out all dividends (its stocks' and the fund's).
Every trade, open and closed
| Stock | Shape | Bought | Sold | Months | Share price | In pounds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEE | Bull flag | Nov 2025 | held | 10 | -4.8% | −£828 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · blue dot: bought · gold dot: sold · shaded: while held. At the end of Oct 2025 the scan found a bull flag on AEE with its level at $104.38, 2.3% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2025 and the buy-stop filled at $104.38, with the stop at $90.14 (13.6% below). It is still held after 10 months, last at $99.38 (-4.8%, -0.35R). It has not yet been 1R ahead, so only the stop can end it for now. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthOct 2025 Level (buy-stop)$104.38 Close at the signal$102.02 Close below the level by2.3% Detector confidence70% Above its 10-month average2.5% Stars★★★★ ★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ⚠ Utility The tradeBoughtNov 2025 at $104.38 Stop$90.14 (13.6% risk) Put in£15,339 Now$99.38 (still held) Held10 months Share price-4.8% In R (risk units)-0.35R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£828 (-5.4%) Dividends received£431 | |||||||
| SO | Bull flag | Mar 2025 | held | 18 | -8.9% | −£1,566 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · blue dot: bought · gold dot: sold · shaded: while held. At the end of Feb 2025 the scan found a bull flag on SO with its level at $91.03, 1.4% above the close. The price traded through it in Mar 2025 and the buy-stop filled at $91.03, with the stop at $79.11 (13.1% below). It is still held after 18 months, last at $82.89 (-8.9%, -0.68R). It has not yet been 1R ahead, so only the stop can end it for now. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthFeb 2025 Level (buy-stop)$91.03 Close at the signal$89.79 Close below the level by1.4% Detector confidence70% Above its 10-month average5.1% Stars★★★★★ ★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ⚠ Heavy short selling ⚠ Utility The tradeBoughtMar 2025 at $91.03 Stop$79.11 (13.1% risk) Put in£13,501 Now$82.89 (still held) Held18 months Share price-8.9% In R (risk units)-0.68R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£1,566 (-11.6%) Dividends received£634 | |||||||
| ATO | Inverse head & shoulders | Dec 2022 | Sep 2026 | 45 | +29.2% | +£1,894 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · blue dot: bought · gold dot: sold · shaded: while held. At the end of Nov 2022 the scan found an inverse head & shoulders on ATO with its level at $121.08, 0.7% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2022 and the buy-stop filled at $121.08, with the stop at $98.50 (18.6% below). It was sold in Sep 2026 at $156.44 (closed under the trend line) after 45 months: +29.2% on the share price, +1.57R. The signalShapeInverse head & shoulders Signal monthNov 2022 Level (buy-stop)$121.08 Close at the signal$120.20 Close below the level by0.7% Detector confidence67% Above its 10-month average6.0% Stars★★★★ ★ No-seller ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat ⚠ Heavy short selling ⚠ Utility The tradeBoughtDec 2022 at $121.08 Stop$98.50 (18.6% risk) Put in£11,407 SoldSep 2026 at $156.44 WhyClosed under the trend line Held45 months Share price+29.2% In R (risk units)+1.57R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate+£1,894 (+16.6%) Dividends received£1,122 | |||||||
| RCL | Bull flag | Dec 2023 | Aug 2026 | 32 | +146.3% | +£14,376 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · blue dot: bought · gold dot: sold · shaded: while held. At the end of Nov 2023 the scan found a bull flag on RCL with its level at $109.11, 1.5% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2023 and the buy-stop filled at $109.11, with the stop at $78.07 (28.5% below). It was sold in Aug 2026 at $268.74 (closed under the trend line) after 32 months: +146.3% on the share price, +5.14R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthNov 2023 Level (buy-stop)$109.11 Close at the signal$107.46 Close below the level by1.5% Detector confidence85% Above its 10-month average22.3% Stars★★★ ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat ⚠ Heavy short selling The tradeBoughtDec 2023 at $109.11 Stop$78.07 (28.5% risk) Put in£11,096 SoldAug 2026 at $268.74 WhyClosed under the trend line Held32 months Share price+146.3% In R (risk units)+5.14R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate+£14,376 (+129.6%) Dividends received£723 | |||||||
| HST | Bull flag | Nov 2021 | Apr 2025 | 41 | -27.7% | −£2,974 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · blue dot: bought · gold dot: sold · shaded: while held. At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on HST with its level at $17.09, 1.5% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $17.09, with the stop at $12.36 (27.7% below). It was sold in Apr 2025 at $12.36 (stop hit) after 41 months: -27.7% on the share price, -1.00R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthOct 2021 Level (buy-stop)$17.09 Close at the signal$16.83 Close below the level by1.5% Detector confidence85% Above its 10-month average2.0% Stars★★★★★ ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat ⚠ Heavy short selling The tradeBoughtNov 2021 at $17.09 Stop$12.36 (27.7% risk) Put in£10,281 SoldApr 2025 at $12.36 WhyStop hit Held41 months Share price-27.7% In R (risk units)-1.00R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£2,974 (-28.9%) Dividends received£1,607 | |||||||
| GOOG | Bull flag | Dec 2023 | Mar 2025 | 15 | +13.8% | +£1,207 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · blue dot: bought · gold dot: sold · shaded: while held. At the end of Nov 2023 the scan found a bull flag on GOOG with its level at $137.35, 2.6% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2023 and the buy-stop filled at $137.35, with the stop at $105.63 (23.1% below). It was sold in Mar 2025 at $156.23 (closed under the trend line) after 15 months: +13.8% on the share price, +0.60R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthNov 2023 Level (buy-stop)$137.35 Close at the signal$133.92 Close below the level by2.6% Detector confidence85% Above its 10-month average10.8% Stars★★★ ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up The tradeBoughtDec 2023 at $137.35 Stop$105.63 (23.1% risk) Put in£11,096 SoldMar 2025 at $156.23 WhyClosed under the trend line Held15 months Share price+13.8% In R (risk units)+0.60R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate+£1,207 (+10.9%) Dividends received£63 | |||||||
| KO | Bull flag | Dec 2022 | Oct 2023 | 10 | -16.2% | −£2,026 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · blue dot: bought · gold dot: sold · shaded: while held. At the end of Nov 2022 the scan found a bull flag on KO with its level at $64.17, 0.9% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2022 and the buy-stop filled at $64.17, with the stop at $53.78 (16.2% below). It was sold in Oct 2023 at $53.78 (stop hit) after 10 months: -16.2% on the share price, -1.00R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthNov 2022 Level (buy-stop)$64.17 Close at the signal$63.61 Close below the level by0.9% Detector confidence85% Above its 10-month average2.5% Stars★★★ ★ No-seller ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up The tradeBoughtDec 2022 at $64.17 Stop$53.78 (16.2% risk) Put in£11,407 SoldOct 2023 at $53.78 WhyStop hit Held10 months Share price-16.2% In R (risk units)-1.00R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£2,026 (-17.8%) Dividends received£237 | |||||||
| VLO | Bull flag | Nov 2021 | May 2023 | 18 | +37.1% | +£4,696 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · blue dot: bought · gold dot: sold · shaded: while held. At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on VLO with its level at $78.08, 1.0% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $78.08, with the stop at $52.35 (32.9% below). It was sold in May 2023 at $107.04 (closed under the trend line) after 18 months: +37.1% on the share price, +1.13R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthOct 2021 Level (buy-stop)$78.08 Close at the signal$77.33 Close below the level by1.0% Detector confidence85% Above its 10-month average7.6% Stars★★★★★ ★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat The tradeBoughtNov 2021 at $78.08 Stop$52.35 (32.9% risk) Put in£10,281 SoldMay 2023 at $107.04 WhyClosed under the trend line Held18 months Share price+37.1% In R (risk units)+1.13R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate+£4,696 (+45.7%) Dividends received£842 | |||||||
| MTB | Bull flag | Nov 2021 | Dec 2022 | 13 | -2.9% | +£640 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · blue dot: bought · gold dot: sold · shaded: while held. At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on MTB with its level at $149.34, 1.5% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $149.34, with the stop at $110.04 (26.3% below). It was sold in Dec 2022 at $145.06 (closed under the trend line) after 13 months: -2.9% on the share price, -0.11R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthOct 2021 Level (buy-stop)$149.34 Close at the signal$147.12 Close below the level by1.5% Detector confidence85% Above its 10-month average0.1% Stars★★★★★ ★ No-seller ★ Falling rates ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat The tradeBoughtNov 2021 at $149.34 Stop$110.04 (26.3% risk) Put in£10,281 SoldDec 2022 at $145.06 WhyClosed under the trend line Held13 months Share price-2.9% In R (risk units)-0.11R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate+£640 (+6.2%) Dividends received£353 | |||||||
| VMRK | Bull flag | Dec 2021 | Jun 2022 | 6 | -19.2% | −£1,095 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · blue dot: bought · gold dot: sold · shaded: while held. At the end of Nov 2021 the scan found a bull flag on VMRK with its level at $86.40, 1.3% above the close. The price traded through it in Dec 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $86.40, with the stop at $69.81 (19.2% below). It was sold in Jun 2022 at $69.81 (stop hit) after 6 months: -19.2% on the share price, -1.00R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthNov 2021 Level (buy-stop)$86.40 Close at the signal$85.31 Close below the level by1.3% Detector confidence85% Above its 10-month average8.5% Stars★★★★ ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up The tradeBoughtDec 2021 at $86.40 Stop$69.81 (19.2% risk) Put in£9,937 SoldJun 2022 at $69.81 WhyStop hit Held6 months Share price-19.2% In R (risk units)-1.00R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£1,095 (-11.0%) Dividends received£153 | |||||||
| GE | Bull flag | Nov 2021 | Apr 2022 | 5 | -26.9% | −£2,334 | |
Monthly bars. Tags on the right: the level (buy-stop), the stop and the last close. Grey line: the trend (an exponential moving average) · blue dot: bought · gold dot: sold · shaded: while held. At the end of Oct 2021 the scan found a bull flag on GE with its level at $67.09, 2.7% above the close. The price traded through it in Nov 2021 and the buy-stop filled at $67.09, with the stop at $49.05 (26.9% below). It was sold in Apr 2022 at $49.05 (stop hit) after 5 months: -26.9% on the share price, -1.00R. The signalShapeBull flag Signal monthOct 2021 Level (buy-stop)$67.09 Close at the signal$65.34 Close below the level by2.7% Detector confidence85% Above its 10-month average1.5% Stars★★★★★ ★ Falling rates ★ Tight closes ★ 10-month rising ★ Volume drying up ★ Earnings beat The tradeBoughtNov 2021 at $67.09 Stop$49.05 (26.9% risk) Put in£10,281 SoldApr 2022 at $49.05 WhyStop hit Held5 months Share price-26.9% In R (risk units)-1.00R In pounds, after costs and the exchange rate−£2,334 (-22.7%) Dividends received£15 | |||||||
9 closed trades, 5 made money in pounds; 2 still held. Click any trade for its chart and full breakdown. Returns are on the share price; the pounds column is after costs and the exchange rate, on the record's £50,000 account.
Orders for next month (end of Sep 2026)
No buy-stop orders for next month: next month is outside the November–April window.
Shapes found at the end of Sep 2026
| Stock | Shape | Level | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUK | Cup & handle | $117.05 | Held back |
| VZ | Cup & handle | $46.19 | Held back |
Read this before trusting it
- Five years is a short window, and these five were tough for this strategy. Over 20 years of tests it averaged about 15% a year against 12–13% for an index fund, but it fell behind in plenty of single years, and most of its lead came from a few strong ones. This replay shows one of the weaker stretches honestly.
- Few trades. With trades only bought November to April, and only when the market banner is on, it took 11 trades in five years. Winners are held for years, so a few stocks carried most of the account: on average about three-quarters of the money was in stocks and a quarter in the S&P 500 fund. One bad month in a big holding moves the whole line (August 2026: Royal Caribbean fell 16%).
- Today's S&P 500 list. The replay scans the companies in the index now, not the index as it stood each month, which flatters any backtest a little.
- It is a replay, not the record. The live record starts in October 2026 and is sealed every month with a fingerprint; this page is not, and it is rebuilt when the record moves on.
- Costs as in the tests: £3 a trade, a 0.5% spread and 0.1% to move money in and out of the fund. Pound figures use each month's dollar–pound rate. Bank savings use the Bank of England's 1-year fixed-rate average, re-fixed every 12 months.
A paper exercise, not advice. Past results, replayed or real, do not promise future ones.
◀ The live record❓ How it works
Simulated record: what the system would have done, timestamped and cost-adjusted. Not a projection, not advice.v12.0 (2026-10-21)