Retired record. This is the daily breakout engine that ran from July to September 2026, kept exactly as it was. It was retired on 12 October 2026: in 20-year tests, daily breakout signals did no better than random stocks and lost money after costs. The live record is the monthly US one on the front page.
The record so far — profit & loss, day by day
Profit & loss — every closed trade
The record’s progress — running total across every trade
Open book
| Ticker | Opened | Days | Qty | Entry fill | Stop | 1R (risk) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMO US | 2026-09-18 | 34 | 8 | $657.07 | $624.90 | £192.66 | |
Where it is now (close 2026-09-25)Last close$675.00 R so far+0.56R Unrealised P&L£107.38 Distance to stop$50.10 above the stop The setupEntry fill$657.07 Stop (broken level)$624.90 1R distance$32.17/share Quantity8 shares Notional at entry£3,935.14 Risk budget (1R)£192.66 Entry FX cost£5.90 Days held34 Exit queued?No — riding the trend ✓ Healthy stop 4.90% below entry The stop sits in the healthy range — far enough below entry to clear ordinary day-to-day noise, but not so far that a single trade risks an outsized slice of capital. A sensible cushion (roughly 2.5%–5%) — the trade has room to breathe without over-risking. Entry (breakout)$657.07 Stop (broken level)$624.90 4.9% below entry 1R distance$32.17/share How it exitsrides the trend the stop until the trade is 1R ahead; after that, a close below the 20-day average, or the stop Setup score59 / 100 how textbook the pattern looked — not a win prediction Market regimerisk-on — the broad market (SPY) was in an uptrend, so the engine was willing to buy breakouts Why it fired The setup that triggered it, and whether the trend and volume backed it up: ✓Cup & handle — a rounded base with a small dip — broke above the rim ✓Trend (EMA 20/50) — the short-term average was above the long — uptrend intact ✓Volume — buying came on stronger volume — real participation A high setup score means the pattern looked textbook — that is conviction in the shape, not a promise it will work. This is a breakout setup. The engine spotted TMO pushing up through a level it had been stuck under — the entry line. The idea: a price escaping a long base has often just started a bigger move. The stop sits just under the level that broke. If the price falls back below the very line it just cleared, the setup has failed and the trade is cut — that distance is the trade's 1R. There is no fixed profit target. Until the trade has been 1R ahead (up by as much as it risked), the stop is the only way out — early wobbles are not sold. Once it has, a winner rides the trend for as long as it lasts, and sells only when the price closes below its 20-day average — the short-term trend line the strategy follows. Some winners are small, the occasional one runs a long way; letting them run is what pays for the losers. (Rule since 30 Sept 2026; earlier trades sold on the first close below the average.) The dashed line on the chart is that 20-day EMA. The chart shows the setup exactly as it stood on the signal night — it stops there, so it says nothing about how the trade has gone since. For that, see Where it is now above. Dig deeper Open in TradingView ↗Opens TMO’s live chart on TradingView in a new tab — to study it with your own tools and indicators. Copies the ticker, entry and stop as plain text — paste into any charting tool, spreadsheet or notes. | |||||||
| MSFT US | 2026-09-18 | 34 | 10 | $498.32 | $477.26 | £157.68 | |
Where it is now (close 2026-09-25)Last close$516.17 R so far+0.85R Unrealised P&L£133.64 Distance to stop$38.91 above the stop The setupEntry fill$498.32 Stop (broken level)$477.26 1R distance$21.06/share Quantity10 shares Notional at entry£3,730.49 Risk budget (1R)£157.68 Entry FX cost£5.60 Days held34 Exit queued?No — riding the trend ✓ Healthy stop 4.23% below entry The stop sits in the healthy range — far enough below entry to clear ordinary day-to-day noise, but not so far that a single trade risks an outsized slice of capital. A sensible cushion (roughly 2.5%–5%) — the trade has room to breathe without over-risking. Entry (breakout)$498.32 Stop (broken level)$477.26 4.2% below entry 1R distance$21.06/share How it exitsrides the trend the stop until the trade is 1R ahead; after that, a close below the 20-day average, or the stop Setup score53 / 100 how textbook the pattern looked — not a win prediction Market regimerisk-on — the broad market (SPY) was in an uptrend, so the engine was willing to buy breakouts Why it fired The setup that triggered it, and whether the trend and volume backed it up: ✓Cup & handle — a rounded base with a small dip — broke above the rim ✓Trend (EMA 20/50) — the short-term average was above the long — uptrend intact ✓Volume — buying came on stronger volume — real participation A high setup score means the pattern looked textbook — that is conviction in the shape, not a promise it will work. This is a breakout setup. The engine spotted MSFT pushing up through a level it had been stuck under — the entry line. The idea: a price escaping a long base has often just started a bigger move. The stop sits just under the level that broke. If the price falls back below the very line it just cleared, the setup has failed and the trade is cut — that distance is the trade's 1R. There is no fixed profit target. Until the trade has been 1R ahead (up by as much as it risked), the stop is the only way out — early wobbles are not sold. Once it has, a winner rides the trend for as long as it lasts, and sells only when the price closes below its 20-day average — the short-term trend line the strategy follows. Some winners are small, the occasional one runs a long way; letting them run is what pays for the losers. (Rule since 30 Sept 2026; earlier trades sold on the first close below the average.) The dashed line on the chart is that 20-day EMA. The chart shows the setup exactly as it stood on the signal night — it stops there, so it says nothing about how the trade has gone since. For that, see Where it is now above. Dig deeper Open in TradingView ↗Opens MSFT’s live chart on TradingView in a new tab — to study it with your own tools and indicators. Copies the ticker, entry and stop as plain text — paste into any charting tool, spreadsheet or notes. | |||||||
| MRK US | 2026-09-18 | 34 | 36 | $147.18 | $141.32 | £158.06 | |
Where it is now (close 2026-09-25)Last close$148.78 R so far+0.27R Unrealised P&L£43.04 Distance to stop$7.46 above the stop The setupEntry fill$147.18 Stop (broken level)$141.32 1R distance$5.87/share Quantity36 shares Notional at entry£3,966.60 Risk budget (1R)£158.06 Entry FX cost£5.95 Days held34 Exit queued?No — riding the trend ✓ Healthy stop 3.98% below entry The stop sits in the healthy range — far enough below entry to clear ordinary day-to-day noise, but not so far that a single trade risks an outsized slice of capital. A sensible cushion (roughly 2.5%–5%) — the trade has room to breathe without over-risking. Entry (breakout)$147.18 Stop (broken level)$141.32 4.0% below entry 1R distance$5.87/share How it exitsrides the trend the stop until the trade is 1R ahead; after that, a close below the 20-day average, or the stop Setup score48 / 100 how textbook the pattern looked — not a win prediction Market regimerisk-on — the broad market (SPY) was in an uptrend, so the engine was willing to buy breakouts Why it fired The setup that triggered it, and whether the trend and volume backed it up: ✓Bull flag — a sharp run up, then a tight pause — broke out the top ✓Trend (EMA 20/50) — the short-term average was above the long — uptrend intact ✗Volume — volume did NOT confirm the move A high setup score means the pattern looked textbook — that is conviction in the shape, not a promise it will work. This is a breakout setup. The engine spotted MRK pushing up through a level it had been stuck under — the entry line. The idea: a price escaping a long base has often just started a bigger move. The stop sits just under the level that broke. If the price falls back below the very line it just cleared, the setup has failed and the trade is cut — that distance is the trade's 1R. There is no fixed profit target. Until the trade has been 1R ahead (up by as much as it risked), the stop is the only way out — early wobbles are not sold. Once it has, a winner rides the trend for as long as it lasts, and sells only when the price closes below its 20-day average — the short-term trend line the strategy follows. Some winners are small, the occasional one runs a long way; letting them run is what pays for the losers. (Rule since 30 Sept 2026; earlier trades sold on the first close below the average.) The dashed line on the chart is that 20-day EMA. The chart shows the setup exactly as it stood on the signal night — it stops there, so it says nothing about how the trade has gone since. For that, see Where it is now above. Dig deeper Open in TradingView ↗Opens MRK’s live chart on TradingView in a new tab — to study it with your own tools and indicators. Copies the ticker, entry and stop as plain text — paste into any charting tool, spreadsheet or notes. | |||||||
| NVDA US | 2026-09-18 | 34 | 24 | $219.50 | $206.40 | £235.37 | |
Where it is now (close 2026-09-25)Last close$225.07 R so far+0.42R Unrealised P&L£100.01 Distance to stop$18.67 above the stop The setupEntry fill$219.50 Stop (broken level)$206.40 1R distance$13.10/share Quantity24 shares Notional at entry£3,943.77 Risk budget (1R)£235.37 Entry FX cost£5.92 Days held34 Exit queued?No — riding the trend ◆ Wide stop 5.97% below entry That is on the wide side: sturdy against noise, but more capital is at risk per share than a tighter stop. Not a mistake, just a bigger bet: a wide stop trades noise-resistance for more capital on the line. A healthy cushion is usually 2.5%–5% below entry. Entry (breakout)$219.50 Stop (broken level)$206.40 6.0% below entry 1R distance$13.10/share How it exitsrides the trend the stop until the trade is 1R ahead; after that, a close below the 20-day average, or the stop Setup score42 / 100 how textbook the pattern looked — not a win prediction Market regimerisk-on — the broad market (SPY) was in an uptrend, so the engine was willing to buy breakouts Why it fired The setup that triggered it, and whether the trend and volume backed it up: ✓Inverse head & shoulders — a low between two higher lows — broke the neckline ✓Trend (EMA 20/50) — the short-term average was above the long — uptrend intact ✗Volume — volume did NOT confirm the move A high setup score means the pattern looked textbook — that is conviction in the shape, not a promise it will work. This is a breakout setup. The engine spotted NVDA pushing up through a level it had been stuck under — the entry line. The idea: a price escaping a long base has often just started a bigger move. The stop sits just under the level that broke. If the price falls back below the very line it just cleared, the setup has failed and the trade is cut — that distance is the trade's 1R. There is no fixed profit target. Until the trade has been 1R ahead (up by as much as it risked), the stop is the only way out — early wobbles are not sold. Once it has, a winner rides the trend for as long as it lasts, and sells only when the price closes below its 20-day average — the short-term trend line the strategy follows. Some winners are small, the occasional one runs a long way; letting them run is what pays for the losers. (Rule since 30 Sept 2026; earlier trades sold on the first close below the average.) The dashed line on the chart is that 20-day EMA. The chart shows the setup exactly as it stood on the signal night — it stops there, so it says nothing about how the trade has gone since. For that, see Where it is now above. Dig deeper Open in TradingView ↗Opens NVDA’s live chart on TradingView in a new tab — to study it with your own tools and indicators. Copies the ticker, entry and stop as plain text — paste into any charting tool, spreadsheet or notes. | |||||||
| AAPL US | 2026-09-18 | 34 | 15 | $338.15 | $321.34 | £188.76 | |
Where it is now (close 2026-09-25)Last close$341.07 R so far+0.17R Unrealised P&L£32.83 Distance to stop$19.73 above the stop The setupEntry fill$338.15 Stop (broken level)$321.34 1R distance$16.81/share Quantity15 shares Notional at entry£3,797.12 Risk budget (1R)£188.76 Entry FX cost£5.70 Days held34 Exit queued?No — riding the trend ✓ Healthy stop 4.97% below entry The stop sits in the healthy range — far enough below entry to clear ordinary day-to-day noise, but not so far that a single trade risks an outsized slice of capital. A sensible cushion (roughly 2.5%–5%) — the trade has room to breathe without over-risking. Entry (breakout)$338.15 Stop (broken level)$321.34 5.0% below entry 1R distance$16.81/share How it exitsrides the trend the stop until the trade is 1R ahead; after that, a close below the 20-day average, or the stop Setup score36 / 100 how textbook the pattern looked — not a win prediction Market regimerisk-on — the broad market (SPY) was in an uptrend, so the engine was willing to buy breakouts Why it fired The setup that triggered it, and whether the trend and volume backed it up: ✓Cup & handle — a rounded base with a small dip — broke above the rim ✓Trend (EMA 20/50) — the short-term average was above the long — uptrend intact ✗Volume — volume did NOT confirm the move A high setup score means the pattern looked textbook — that is conviction in the shape, not a promise it will work. This is a breakout setup. The engine spotted AAPL pushing up through a level it had been stuck under — the entry line. The idea: a price escaping a long base has often just started a bigger move. The stop sits just under the level that broke. If the price falls back below the very line it just cleared, the setup has failed and the trade is cut — that distance is the trade's 1R. There is no fixed profit target. Until the trade has been 1R ahead (up by as much as it risked), the stop is the only way out — early wobbles are not sold. Once it has, a winner rides the trend for as long as it lasts, and sells only when the price closes below its 20-day average — the short-term trend line the strategy follows. Some winners are small, the occasional one runs a long way; letting them run is what pays for the losers. (Rule since 30 Sept 2026; earlier trades sold on the first close below the average.) The dashed line on the chart is that 20-day EMA. The chart shows the setup exactly as it stood on the signal night — it stops there, so it says nothing about how the trade has gone since. For that, see Where it is now above. Dig deeper Open in TradingView ↗Opens AAPL’s live chart on TradingView in a new tab — to study it with your own tools and indicators. Copies the ticker, entry and stop as plain text — paste into any charting tool, spreadsheet or notes. | |||||||
| AMD US | 2026-09-22 | 30 | 8 | $606.99 | $561.47 | £272.38 | |
Where it is now (close 2026-09-25)Last close$630.63 R so far+0.52R Unrealised P&L£141.41 Distance to stop$69.16 above the stop The setupEntry fill$606.99 Stop (broken level)$561.47 1R distance$45.52/share Quantity8 shares Notional at entry£3,631.74 Risk budget (1R)£272.38 Entry FX cost£5.45 Days held30 Exit queued?No — riding the trend ◆ Wide stop 7.50% below entry That is on the wide side: sturdy against noise, but more capital is at risk per share than a tighter stop. Not a mistake, just a bigger bet: a wide stop trades noise-resistance for more capital on the line. A healthy cushion is usually 2.5%–5% below entry. Entry (breakout)$606.99 Stop (broken level)$561.47 7.5% below entry 1R distance$45.52/share How it exitsrides the trend the stop until the trade is 1R ahead; after that, a close below the 20-day average, or the stop Setup score72 / 100 how textbook the pattern looked — not a win prediction Market regimerisk-on — the broad market (SPY) was in an uptrend, so the engine was willing to buy breakouts Why it fired The setup that triggered it, and whether the trend and volume backed it up: ✓Cup & handle — a rounded base with a small dip — broke above the rim ✓Inverse head & shoulders — a low between two higher lows — broke the neckline ✓Trend (EMA 20/50) — the short-term average was above the long — uptrend intact ✓Volume — buying came on stronger volume — real participation A high setup score means the pattern looked textbook — that is conviction in the shape, not a promise it will work. This is a breakout setup. The engine spotted AMD pushing up through a level it had been stuck under — the entry line. The idea: a price escaping a long base has often just started a bigger move. The stop sits just under the level that broke. If the price falls back below the very line it just cleared, the setup has failed and the trade is cut — that distance is the trade's 1R. There is no fixed profit target. Until the trade has been 1R ahead (up by as much as it risked), the stop is the only way out — early wobbles are not sold. Once it has, a winner rides the trend for as long as it lasts, and sells only when the price closes below its 20-day average — the short-term trend line the strategy follows. Some winners are small, the occasional one runs a long way; letting them run is what pays for the losers. (Rule since 30 Sept 2026; earlier trades sold on the first close below the average.) The dashed line on the chart is that 20-day EMA. The chart shows the setup exactly as it stood on the signal night — it stops there, so it says nothing about how the trade has gone since. For that, see Where it is now above. Dig deeper Open in TradingView ↗Opens AMD’s live chart on TradingView in a new tab — to study it with your own tools and indicators. Copies the ticker, entry and stop as plain text — paste into any charting tool, spreadsheet or notes. | |||||||
| QCOM US | 2026-09-23 | 29 | 26 | $199.75 | $178.95 | £405.24 | |
Where it is now (close 2026-09-25)Last close$201.97 R so far+0.11R Unrealised P&L£43.26 Distance to stop$23.02 above the stop The setupEntry fill$199.75 Stop (broken level)$178.95 1R distance$20.80/share Quantity26 shares Notional at entry£3,892.26 Risk budget (1R)£405.24 Entry FX cost£5.84 Days held29 Exit queued?No — riding the trend ◆ High capital risk 10.41% below entry That is a wide stop: the trade is sturdy against noise, but a large slice of capital rides on this single position — if the stop is hit, the loss per share is big. Not a mistake, just a bigger bet: a wide stop trades noise-resistance for more capital on the line. A healthy cushion is usually 2.5%–5% below entry. Entry (breakout)$199.75 Stop (broken level)$178.95 10.4% below entry 1R distance$20.80/share How it exitsrides the trend the stop until the trade is 1R ahead; after that, a close below the 20-day average, or the stop Setup score59 / 100 how textbook the pattern looked — not a win prediction Market regimerisk-on — the broad market (SPY) was in an uptrend, so the engine was willing to buy breakouts Why it fired The setup that triggered it, and whether the trend and volume backed it up: ✓Cup & handle — a rounded base with a small dip — broke above the rim ✓Inverse head & shoulders — a low between two higher lows — broke the neckline ✓Trend (EMA 20/50) — the short-term average was above the long — uptrend intact ✗Volume — volume did NOT confirm the move A high setup score means the pattern looked textbook — that is conviction in the shape, not a promise it will work. This is a breakout setup. The engine spotted QCOM pushing up through a level it had been stuck under — the entry line. The idea: a price escaping a long base has often just started a bigger move. The stop sits just under the level that broke. If the price falls back below the very line it just cleared, the setup has failed and the trade is cut — that distance is the trade's 1R. There is no fixed profit target. Until the trade has been 1R ahead (up by as much as it risked), the stop is the only way out — early wobbles are not sold. Once it has, a winner rides the trend for as long as it lasts, and sells only when the price closes below its 20-day average — the short-term trend line the strategy follows. Some winners are small, the occasional one runs a long way; letting them run is what pays for the losers. (Rule since 30 Sept 2026; earlier trades sold on the first close below the average.) The dashed line on the chart is that 20-day EMA. The chart shows the setup exactly as it stood on the signal night — it stops there, so it says nothing about how the trade has gone since. For that, see Where it is now above. Dig deeper Open in TradingView ↗Opens QCOM’s live chart on TradingView in a new tab — to study it with your own tools and indicators. Copies the ticker, entry and stop as plain text — paste into any charting tool, spreadsheet or notes. | |||||||
| PFE US | 2026-09-23 | 29 | 190 | $27.98 | $26.99 | £140.50 | |
Where it is now (close 2026-09-25)Last close$28.67 R so far+0.70R Unrealised P&L£98.31 Distance to stop$1.68 above the stop The setupEntry fill$27.98 Stop (broken level)$26.99 1R distance$0.99/share Quantity190 shares Notional at entry£3,984.17 Risk budget (1R)£140.50 Entry FX cost£5.98 Days held29 Exit queued?No — riding the trend ✓ Healthy stop 3.53% below entry The stop sits in the healthy range — far enough below entry to clear ordinary day-to-day noise, but not so far that a single trade risks an outsized slice of capital. A sensible cushion (roughly 2.5%–5%) — the trade has room to breathe without over-risking. Entry (breakout)$27.98 Stop (broken level)$26.99 3.5% below entry 1R distance$0.99/share How it exitsrides the trend the stop until the trade is 1R ahead; after that, a close below the 20-day average, or the stop Setup score55 / 100 how textbook the pattern looked — not a win prediction Market regimerisk-on — the broad market (SPY) was in an uptrend, so the engine was willing to buy breakouts Why it fired The setup that triggered it, and whether the trend and volume backed it up: ✓Cup & handle — a rounded base with a small dip — broke above the rim ✓Trend (EMA 20/50) — the short-term average was above the long — uptrend intact ✗Volume — volume did NOT confirm the move A high setup score means the pattern looked textbook — that is conviction in the shape, not a promise it will work. This is a breakout setup. The engine spotted PFE pushing up through a level it had been stuck under — the entry line. The idea: a price escaping a long base has often just started a bigger move. The stop sits just under the level that broke. If the price falls back below the very line it just cleared, the setup has failed and the trade is cut — that distance is the trade's 1R. There is no fixed profit target. Until the trade has been 1R ahead (up by as much as it risked), the stop is the only way out — early wobbles are not sold. Once it has, a winner rides the trend for as long as it lasts, and sells only when the price closes below its 20-day average — the short-term trend line the strategy follows. Some winners are small, the occasional one runs a long way; letting them run is what pays for the losers. (Rule since 30 Sept 2026; earlier trades sold on the first close below the average.) The dashed line on the chart is that 20-day EMA. The chart shows the setup exactly as it stood on the signal night — it stops there, so it says nothing about how the trade has gone since. For that, see Where it is now above. Dig deeper Open in TradingView ↗Opens PFE’s live chart on TradingView in a new tab — to study it with your own tools and indicators. Copies the ticker, entry and stop as plain text — paste into any charting tool, spreadsheet or notes. | |||||||
| PLTR US | 2026-09-24 | 28 | 27 | $189.33 | $177.50 | £241.27 | |
Where it is now (close 2026-09-25)Last close$189.67 R so far+0.03R Unrealised P&L£6.88 Distance to stop$12.17 above the stop The setupEntry fill$189.33 Stop (broken level)$177.50 1R distance$11.83/share Quantity27 shares Notional at entry£3,860.56 Risk budget (1R)£241.27 Entry FX cost£5.79 Days held28 Exit queued?No — riding the trend ◆ Wide stop 6.25% below entry That is on the wide side: sturdy against noise, but more capital is at risk per share than a tighter stop. Not a mistake, just a bigger bet: a wide stop trades noise-resistance for more capital on the line. A healthy cushion is usually 2.5%–5% below entry. Entry (breakout)$189.33 Stop (broken level)$177.50 6.2% below entry 1R distance$11.83/share How it exitsrides the trend the stop until the trade is 1R ahead; after that, a close below the 20-day average, or the stop Setup score53 / 100 how textbook the pattern looked — not a win prediction Market regimerisk-on — the broad market (SPY) was in an uptrend, so the engine was willing to buy breakouts Why it fired The setup that triggered it, and whether the trend and volume backed it up: ✓Cup & handle — a rounded base with a small dip — broke above the rim ✓Trend (EMA 20/50) — the short-term average was above the long — uptrend intact ✓Volume — buying came on stronger volume — real participation A high setup score means the pattern looked textbook — that is conviction in the shape, not a promise it will work. This is a breakout setup. The engine spotted PLTR pushing up through a level it had been stuck under — the entry line. The idea: a price escaping a long base has often just started a bigger move. The stop sits just under the level that broke. If the price falls back below the very line it just cleared, the setup has failed and the trade is cut — that distance is the trade's 1R. There is no fixed profit target. Until the trade has been 1R ahead (up by as much as it risked), the stop is the only way out — early wobbles are not sold. Once it has, a winner rides the trend for as long as it lasts, and sells only when the price closes below its 20-day average — the short-term trend line the strategy follows. Some winners are small, the occasional one runs a long way; letting them run is what pays for the losers. (Rule since 30 Sept 2026; earlier trades sold on the first close below the average.) The dashed line on the chart is that 20-day EMA. The chart shows the setup exactly as it stood on the signal night — it stops there, so it says nothing about how the trade has gone since. For that, see Where it is now above. Dig deeper Open in TradingView ↗Opens PLTR’s live chart on TradingView in a new tab — to study it with your own tools and indicators. Copies the ticker, entry and stop as plain text — paste into any charting tool, spreadsheet or notes. | |||||||
📜 Full trade history (25 closed trades) →
🔍 The machine's picks ❓ How the Breakout book works ↻ The Bank Savings book
Simulated record: what the system would have done, timestamped and cost-adjusted. Not a projection, not advice.v12.0 (2026-10-21)